And the Winner is ... Jack Black!

When the Academy Awards are handed out on February 25th, I predict that this will finally be Jack Black's year.

Not only is he up for an Oscar in the Best Actor category for both Nacho Libre and Tenacious D and the Pick of Destiny - but his Best Supporting Actor Nomination for Holiday makes him a triple threat.

I may be going out on a limb here but my gut tells me that he'll be awarded the Oscar for his work in Nacho Libre. For one thing, despite Tenacious D's aspirations to be any epic quest film, it's really a rock movie - and the Academy is still full of aging voters who have never gotten over what happened to musicals after Elvis started making pictures.

As for Best Supporting Actor, as believable as Black was as Kate Winslet's love interest in the romantic comedy, Holiday, industry buzz has it that Andy Dick will pick up the coveted gold statue for his scene-stealing turn as 007's wacky sidekick "Billy Bond" in Casino Royale.

Nope, this is going to be the year that Nacho Libre sweeps the Oscars - not just for Black as star and producer of what will be named Best Movie of 2006, but also for writer-director Jared Hess and writer-producer Mike White (who also worked with Black on 2003's School of Rock.)

Part of the reason for the Nacho landslide can be attributed to the latent guilt on the Academy's part for their deliberate snub a couple of years ago of Hess' indie film, Napoleon Dynamite, which was a box-office smash.

However, if there's one thing Hollywood likes more than a box-office hit, it is to acknowledge a young actor who makes the conscious decision to pattern his career after an industry icon. Hence, Black's long-awaited Oscar.

Think about his three most famous roles to date - the overweight eternally-losing Mexican wrestler "Nacho Libre"; the chubby going-nowhere heavy-metal wannabe "J.B." in Tenacious D; and the chunky down-and-out guitar hero "Dewey Finn" who gets kicked out of his own band in School of Rock.

Story-wise, these three movies follow the same formula - a chubby sad-sack braggart blowhard becomes a hero, is revealed as a fake and then has to redeem himself by overcoming his huge ego.

Sound familiar? Well, substitute "chubby blowhard" with "meek mild stringbean" and "huge ego" with "overcome his fears," and what have you got? Why, the films of screen legend Don Knotts, of course!

During the mid-1960s, with films like The Ghost and Mr. Chicken; The Love God and The Reluctant Astronaut, the late Knotts single-handedly saved Universal Studios from bankruptcy. The Academy doesn't forget that sort of thing and that's why they appreciate Black's touching "homage" to Knotts' contribution to the industry.

But it doesn't end there. Black has also made efforts to avoid typecasting by taking on dramatic darker roles. His sensitive portrayal of villain "Carl Denham" in King Kong was not unlike when Knotts surprised the world by going against type with his courageous interpretation of "Albert Speer" in the 1969 art-house flick, Hitler's Architech and the French Farmgirl.

Still, like his career role-model, Black knows the kind of character we want to see him play and what side his bread is buttered on. His big film for 2008 is DreamWorks' computer-generated animation film, Kung-Fu Panda.

Listen to this plot summary found on imdb.com - "A lazy, irreverent slacker panda (voiced by Jack Black) must somehow become a Kung-Fu Master to save the Valley of Peace from a villainous snow leopard. He ultimately does so by learning that if he believes in himself, he can do anything.

That sounds almost like the same plot as Knotts' animated/live-action classic, The Incredible Mr. Limpet from 1965 in which a reluctant Knotts is transformed into a fish and saves the United States' eastern coastline from Nazi submarines during World War Two.

If we're lucky, fans might also get a chance to hear Black do what Knotts did best in Mr. Limpet - sing!

Jack Black - he's the Don Knotts of the new millenium. And it's about time he won that Academy Award and brought home the hardware.